Authur Buttram writes in response to Ben Compton's Scenario Planning
query:
>I've also read 'heretics' and although I am very interested in scenario
>planning [SP], I suspect that it is based on a linear view of the world
>which is negated both by the pace of change we now face and by
>complexity
>theory concepts.
Authur,
I have recently (last 30 days) read "The Art of the Longview" by Peter
Schwartz which explains Scenario Planning and I did not understand it to
be a linear approach. On the contrary, I understood that the real
capacity of this technique is its ability to draw from the broad trends
and cutting edge "possibilities." As Schwartz explains in "TAotL"
scenarios create opportunities to practice potential outcomes before they
become true. And based upon his experience, no scenario as actually
planned becomes true - in and of itself. Instead sections or segments
occur with other sections from the three or four scenarios which you have
built to "fit" your organization and its environment. These form a
totally "new" scenario, but imbedded in this new scenario is parts which
you have planned for - creating an opportunity for ACTION instead of
RE-ACTION.
...good stuff deleted...
> I think there is a lot of value in SP, but only if we can recast it to
> interact with our 'post-complexity' world.
I think this is how is was meant to be used.
>There is an interesting article about the failure of SP at Shell [!]
>you'll almost certainly want to read; it's in Long Range Planning vol 29
>no-6, it's by Elkington and Trisoglio. It looks at Shell's recent
'>mishaps' in Nigeria and with the oil platform Brent Spar in the north
>Sea. Elkington is an environmental sustainability consultant; Trisoglio
>is an academic and consultant who, inter alia, has written an excellent
>overview paper on complexity and strategy.
My initial speculation of this outcome is that - just because we have
planning options doesn't guarantee that we will make the right decisions.
>What might help Novell? Well for what it's worth I'd try 'whole-system'
>approaches like Future Search or Open Space to get a mass of input from
>lots of people inside and outside Novell, to see what visions/attractors
>emerge that can help novell get a better feel for what is emerging.
>[you'll find lots of this type of stuff on the Web.]
Ben,
Since you also have read or looked into Schwartz's work, where are you
headed with Scenario Planning?
Thanks Arthur for pressing a hot button. I look forward to your reply.
Regards,
Chris Michel
Chris Michel
NCR Corporation
1529 Brown Street, EMD-5
Dayton OH 45479
chris.michel@daytonoh.ncr.com
--"Michel, Christopher J" <michec@uh2297p01.daytonoh.ncr.com>
Learning-org -- An Internet Dialog on Learning Organizations For info: <rkarash@karash.com> -or- <http://world.std.com/~lo/>