Scenario Planning LO12587

Brian Cox (bcox@dial.pipex.com)
Sat, 15 Feb 1997 13:31:36 +0000

Ian Yeoman in LO12502 Wrote..

> I find cognitive maps a bad way to judge dialogue - they are a consenus
> building tool, which is the opposite of what Schien, Isaacs, Senge are
> promoting. What are you measuring - how do you distinguish between
> conscious and subconscious - What don't people tell you?

Yes, they can be to use gain consenus. Alternatively, and correct me if I
am wrong, they can be used to capture how an individual perceives a
problem, situation etc. Once captures, and after my interventions (the
scenario workshops) there are a number of ways of meauring change, but
most tend to look for changes in content and structure. Langfield-Smith
and Wirth (J. Opl Res. Soc. Vol.43 No.12) wrote and excellent article on
this subject. I agree that any map is only an approximation of what an
individual actually thinks, would do etc.

Arthur Battram in LO12461 wrote...

> Ben, I don't believe that. [Remember Kevin Kelly's 'nine laws of god' (if
> you don't ask me for details), number 7 says 'pursue no optima'. On a
> constantly deforming fitness landscape any successful strategy/decision to
> go with that strategy/ is only temporarily successful; you need to scan
> not plan.

Scenario planning is not about *planning* for one future, but about
thinking about *many*. As I mentioned when we spoke the other day,
scenarios can significantly increase both individuals' and an
organisation's zone of possibility; something which is often closed down
by traditional planning.

> I think there is a lot of value in SP, but only if we can recast it to
> interact with our 'post-complexity' world.

I firmly believe that there is significant value in SP, and further that
this can be expressed in terms of complexity and chaos theory. For
example, the workshops are arguably a virtual way to take a management
team into the edge of chaos. During the workshops new and *emergent*
strategies can be formed.

-- 
Brian Cox

Email : gbwbscsd@ibmmail.com bcox@dial.pipex.com

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