Sherri Malouf, in LO10745, wrote about the "Millennium Problem" (aka the
"Y2000 Problem"):
> ... Gary and I spoke briefly about the fact that many computers
> are not capable of going past the year 1999 and that we really don't have
> a handle on the true impact this will have.
Too true - all the reports I have seen (plus some anecdotal evidence of my
own) suggests that most organisations have only a hazy idea of the impact.
There are exceptions - some understand and have plans in place, some (a
minority) have everything y2000-compliant already.
> ... Then I thought -- this is crazy! If
> computers had been invented in the 1500's I can understand the calendar
> thing. But most computers have hit the market in the last 20 years.
> While technology moves quickly didn't anyone think about this? We have
> complex relational data bases but we don't have the year 2000?
It's mostly the software that's been written, rather than just the
hardware. One cause for "why": back in the 70s/80s when storage was
expensive, using 2 digits for the year in database records helped save
storage space. And some systems were not expected to last until now. So
date calculations assumed that 99 > 00 !
> So there is not a lot being discussed about this. The ramifications are
> not being investigated in an open way -- yet...
Perhaps not in the business world at large, but there is discussion (and
even action) amongst the IT community. Try http://www.year2000.com/ and
http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm as two WWW sites with useful information.
> So here is my question..
> We have talked about systems changing -- large systems like the US
> Government -- could this be the leap into chaos? [snip] But could this date
> issue actually bring about chaos? Do you know how many of the services you
> receive are based on a computerized calendar? Are we living in denial
> about a technical aspect of this system and what can we learn based on our
> behavior?
Could it bring chaos ? Quite possibly. If bank vaults operate on timed
opening, and rely on day of the week, then Y2000 could cause problems.
Will your VCR programming still work ? What about an answering machine
that records date/time of the caller ? And what sort of phone bill will
you get for a 10 min call starting 2355 31-Dec-99 ?
Incidently, I caution people not to change the clock on a computer "to see
if it works". If you have a software package installed, with a
time-dependent licence, you may cause more problems for yourself right now
when you restart.
Perhaps the immensity of all this is enough to put someone into denial. I
can understand some of the impacts, and recognise the need to sort out
systems for which I am responsible. Yet I have no idea if my bank (for
example) has the issue in hand, and I don't have the time and energy to go
and find out. So I'm left with this nagging worry - and so assume that
it's "someone else's problem" to solve - and someone must be solving it at
the bank surely ?
In a business context, it seems to me that the central issue is one of
managing the situation - deciding what must be fixed, what can be left,
what order we should repair the systems. And in any organisation, that
will require an interesting mix of detailed and overall perspectives. The
technical problems are not that difficult - understanding the business
impact is more challenging!
(I almost forgot - is there an accurate and complete inventory of all the
systems and hardware that your organisation operates ? For some, this is
a non-trivial question to answer)
-- Martin Wood - Communications and Media Division, EDS UK mwood@ukmkwt.cig.eds.com Tel: +44 1908 284050 The views above are mine, and not necessarily those of EDSLearning-org -- An Internet Dialog on Learning Organizations For info: <rkarash@karash.com> -or- <http://world.std.com/~lo/>