In LO3143, Marilyn Darling wrote...
>>I would like to share one comment with you about Karl-Henrik Robert's
>>presentation. I found the concept of backcasting very valuable. But it had
>>a component to it that enriches the description you gave us:
>> "They use "backcasting": define the goal, and work backwards
>> from it, rather than forecasting from today's trends"
Hi Marilyn,
I am presuming the word forecasting means to take today's situation,
numbers, picture and extrapolate it into the future. All of the thoughts
below are with the understanding that the groups I am referencing are not
forecasting in this sense, but are indeed setting targets for future
excellence, creation, change, etc.
Quite a few years ago, I had heard that a number of Japanese companies
imagine the future, mentally go to it, and then plan backwards from the
future to the present. I find it this easier to do myself. Once the
picture of what is going to be created is finished, it is a matter of
deconstructing it back to the present. The strategic planning models I
have seen, all appear to plan from the present towards the future. Is
there a reason why?
Second, when I/we plan a family trip, we usually talk backwards from some
end point (farthest geographically, point we will settle into for a few
days, etc) of the trip. I was not aware there was a better (different way)
to plan until strategic planning hit the US in a big way a few years ago.
I find moving from the present towards the future sort of difficult. It
seems to cause me to be more concerned about changing the here and now
instead of creating the future picture.
I also do not presume I am the only one like this in the western world.
When developing something we call a Process Map IMHO (sort of a generic
and high level Critical Path sometime extending out three years) I see
managers and management teams going - some forward into time, some
backwards from the future, some working outward from an approximated
middle time period. Never asked why any of them why they chose a
particular way since I believe teams develop their own style, suitable for
their personal preference in understanding/learning.
I'd bet there are folks on this digest who work backwards and have for
years. My question, is it a matter of learning preference to work one
direction or the other? OR, is there some specific higher value which
comes out of backwards planning that I cannot see. You can tell my
personal preference but I cannot truly see a difference in the end product
when I work with teams going one direction or the other. Again, all sets
of teams set the future target or goal and then layout plans to get there.
Had not thought about this for a number of years so am finding this thread
very enjoyable.
Have a truly great day!!
-- Dave Buffenbarger Organizational Improvement Coach Dow Chemical Company dwbuff@aol.com (517) 638-7080