Arnold's Year 2000 Checklist

A Guide for Individuals and Small Businesses

by Arnold Reinhold

[Not much happened at midnight December 31, 1999. Even the parties weren't all that great. A lot of hard work went into making sure there would be few problems. Thinking about how to prepare for wholesale failure of information infrastructure was a good thing. We've just about use up our Y2K toilet paper and Cheerios. We've left the rest of this paper unchanged as an historical document and as preperation for the next monster date issue, which will be January 19, 2038 when Unix clocks roll over. See http://www.iee.org.uk/PAB/SCS/problemdates.htm for lesser problem dates. -- agr 2001-8-29]

The hoopla about the Year 2000 problem will continue to grow as the feared date gets closer and closer. This problem, also known as the Millennium Bug or just Y2K, results from the computer programmers' storing the year as a two digit value, a practice that dates back to the time of punched card systems. Many computer programs will exhibit faults when the Year 2000 arrives.

We think the most alarmist predictions will not come true. Here's why:

• While many critical systems will not be fixed by January 1, 2000, most critical infrastructure organizations will have some back-up plans.
• Many organizations, such as mortgage companies, have had to deal with 21st century dates for some time now.
• Many of the billions of lines of computer code out there simply produce reports that no one reads anyway.
• More and more companies are using personal computers that are not as affected by the Year 2000 problem.
• The Internet is mostly based on computer systems that will survive the Year 2000.
• December 31, 1999 is on a Friday so businesses will have a weekend to catch up.

However no one can say for sure what will happen on January 1, 2000! Problems may occur in almost any sector of our economy. The more resilient you can make your household and your organization, the more ready you will be for anything that may happen.

There is a lot of Year 2000 advice out there, but most is oriented to telling large organizations how to set up their Year 2000 committees, with statements like "Task the agency's quality assurance staff to review the business continuity planning processes." Here is a personal checklist of actions you can take to get ready for the big day. If you think these recomendations are extreme, you should see what the pessimists are saying!

For the most part, preparing for the Year 2000 involves common sense steps. You should treat the Year 2000 as you would a major weather situation, such as a hurricane or blizzard warning. Prepare to survive for a few weeks in case essential services are interrupted. Fortunately, you do not have to tape your Windows.

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What kind of problems can you expect with your computers?

The problems you can expect depend on the type of computer your are using, its age, whether it is networked and, most importantly the application programs that you rely on.

Generally the older the computer and application program, the more likely it will have Year 2000 problems. Also, specialized application programs are more likely to have problems than those developed for mass markets. Year 2000 problems are also more likely to impact computers that are networked together. Here is a quick rundown:

Macintosh

According to Apple, all Macintosh computers and operating systems will work properly in the Year 2000. See http://www.apple.com/macos/info/2000.html You should still test any application programs you rely on.

IBM-PCs and compatibles

Besides the issue of application programs, the biggest cause of Year 2000 problems on PCs is the real time clock chip on your computer's mother board and the built in software, called BIOS, that handles that clock. There are two common problems, called roll-over and date retention. The roll over problem only applies to New Year's Eve 2000. Many PCs will not automatically switch from 1999 to 2000. There are software patches to fix this available on the Internet, or you can just plan on resetting the date when you first turn your computer on in January 2000.

The second problem, date retention, is far less common, but more serious. Computers with this problem can be set to a year 2000 date but will not remember the date properly when turned off and back on. Generally a mother board fix or replacement is required to fix this problem. Other solutions include setting the date to 1984 (see Back to the Future, below), or just remembering to set the date each time you turn the computer on.

Other parts of Winsows 3.1 and 95 may have problems. There are fixes for most of these at Microsoft's Year 2000 web site, http://www.microsoft.com/year2000.

Unix systems

Unix software generally handles date conversion properly, at least through 2037. Some Unix systems may have problems and require patches. Check with your manufacturer. For older Unix systems that cannot be fixed, consider setting the system date to 1972 (see Back to the Future, below).

Embedded Systems

Microcomputers are in everything these days: microwave ovens, VCRs, automobiles, medical instruments, railroad locomotives, factory machinery, power plants, etc. Many of these computers are not aware of dates at all, but some are. The possibility that some of these embedded systems will fail on January 1, 2000 is the source of much of the alarm surrounding the Y2K issue.

Check with the manufacture of any critical embedded systems that you own. This is especially important for medical instruments and other life support devices. Develop manual backup plans where possible.

Networks

If you are part of a network of computers that exchange data, you have the added burden of worrying about what the other companies are doing. Even if everyone makes their systems Year 2000 compliant, they may use differing approaches, making interchanging data difficult.

Legacy systems

Systems originally based on older mainframe or minicomputers generally have multiple problems with the Year 2000. There are many sites on the Internet devoted to these issues. Unfortunately, many just outline processes for assessing, prioritizing, repairing and testing that are far too complex to be done in the time remaining. If you can, replace legacy programs with Year-2000-compliant commercial off-the-shelf solutions. If you haven't started repairs yet, you may not have any other choice.

Testing your computer

Caution: Back up your computer before doing this test!

Date retention test

Set the date for January 1, 2000 and turn it off. Wait a few minutes and make sure your computer boots up properly and the date is still January 1, 2000.

Application test

While the year is set to 2000, try out each programs you rely on to see if it is working properly. At the very least, create, save and re-open a file in each application. Also set the date to February 29, 2000 and see if your computer accepts this date. Don't forget to set the date back to the current date when you are done.

Roll-over test

Set the date to December 31, 1999 and the time to a few minutes before midnight (e.g. 23:58). Turn the computer off and wait a few minutes. Then turn it back on see if the date has changed properly.

Many PCs fail this test and reset themselves to January 4, 1980,when they reboot. If your computer does not need to be running on New Year's Eve, just plan on resetting the date when you first turn it on in 2000. There are also software programs you can install to fix the roll over problem. See, for example, http://www.RighTime.com/

If your computer does fail the Year 2000 date retention or application tests, check on the availability of firmware, operating system and program upgrades. Most vendor Internet sites have a Year 2000 section.

If need be, plan to buy a new computer by the summer of 1999. Don't wait until the last moment. New computers may get pricey in late 1999 and getting help if you run into a problem upgrading software will be just about impossible.

Back to the future

If you want to continue to use an older computer that chokes completely on the Year 2000, consider setting its clock to an earlier year. Note that there are just three leap years in the 20th century that start on Saturday, as does the Year 2000. Those years are 1916, 1944 and 1972. If you set your computer's clock to one of those years, the day of the week will match the day of the month on your computer and will continue to do so for decades to come (until the computer thinks the year 2000 has arrived or until the real year 2099 comes).

Unfortunately, IBM-compatible PCs cannot be set to dates before 1980. If you cannot get your PC to work properly in 2000, one possibility is setting the year on those computers to 1984 when 2000 starts. The year 1984 is a leap year, just like 2000, and 1984/1/1 is a Sunday, while 2000/1/1 is a Saturday, so the computer's day of the week will always be one day ahead of reality.

Note: If you make this kind of year adjustment in 1999, remember to set the computer a year earlier. For example, if you plan to use 1972 in lieu of 2000, then , say, on December 17, 1999 you set your computer to December 17, 1971.

What you can do

Here is a checklist of Year 2000 precautions that you should take:

As soon as possible

• Review this entire list and make up your own Year 2000 plan. Keep your plan in a safe place along with a printed copy of this list.
• Learn how to adjust the date on your computer. Some operating systems may need special techniques to allow four digit year entry. For example in Windows 3.x, you must go to the International Control Panel and click the Date Format Change button. In the date format screen that appears, click the check box "Century (1990 vs. 90)."
• Test your computer for Year 2000 problems. See above for some simple tests you can do.
• Learn how to back up your computer. Backing up your computer on a regular basis and saving your backup tapes, rather than reusing them, are your best protections against Year 2000 data loss.
• Review other sources of advice on the Year 2000 problem.
• Think about the small non-profit organizations you belong to and help them get ready.
• Get community groups you belong to interested in Y2K preparedness. If you would like a speaker on this topic, contact Carol Baroudi.
• If you have computer skills, you might want to prepare for the employment opportunities that the Year 2000 problem will bring, but be ready for long hours.
• Some older computer software may fail when the year changes to 1999. Start checking all credit card and bank statements.
• If you do not already do so, begin backing up your computer on a regular basis.
• Review your personal budget and investments for 1999. Make sure you will be able to withdraw a substantial amount of cash toward the end of the year, even if there is a panic on Wall Street.
• Beware of Year 2000 scams and hucksters who should start coming out of the woodwork as the New Year approaches. We don't know exactly how the con artists of the world will exploit Year 2000 fears, but we are sure that they will.

For small and not-so-small businesses

Here is a checklist for businesses:

• Take charge. You cannot assign the Year 2000 problem to someone else -- subordinates, consultants or vendors -- and assume all will be well. Ask questions and then ask them again and again until you understand exactly how your business will get through this situation.
• Turn the Year 2000 problem into an opportunity to streamline your operations and develop effective disaster recovery plans.
• Take the time to listen to the computer programmers that work for you. Make sure they understand your business realities and feel involved in the decision making.
• Ruthlessly review all your computer systems. Identify those you absolutely need and make fixing or replacing them your priority.
• Replacement of software is often cheaper, faster and more predictable than repair.
• Consider converting your bookkeeping system to a modern, PC based product like Quick Books. If this is not feasible, set someone to work on a back-up plan to run yore core business using Quick Books or a spreadsheet program.
• Make sure your payroll service is Year 2000 compliant. If you do not use a payroll service, consider switching to one. Make sure it is Year 2000 compliant, of course.
• Plan for a cash flow interruption in the first months of 2000. Talk to your bank about a line of credit.
• Plan how you could run the core of your business if the computers fail. Think paper.
• Ask data entry people to report potential problem areas.
• Implement incentives that will keep your computer staff onboard for the duration.
• Don't sign anything regarding Year 2000 compliance -- surveys, warantees, statements of compliance, etc. -- without checking with your lawyer.
• Year 2000 problems may be used to cover embezzlement. Sign all checks and purchase orders manually, if possible, during 2000 and verify all new vendors.
• Stock extra inventory for December 1999 and January 2000.
• Learn how to bypass your building environmental controls to manually turn on heating ventillation and air conditioning systems.
• Learn where incoming phone lines enter the telephone switch in your building and install network interface devices that can bypass the switch in case it fails.
• Arrange for someone to watch your facility on New Year's weekend 2000.
• Keep your calendar clear in January 2000 and plan on being in town for the month.
• Make sure key staff's winter vacation plans have them home by December 31.
• Train your staff to be alert for the problems you cannot predict. Make sure they are comfortable asking questions about any computer generated instructions they find odd, such as throwing out all the frozen food or cutting an unusually large check to a vendor.
• There is an international standard, ISO 8601, which specifies a yyyy-mm-dd numerical format for writing dates. For example, 2000-5-4 is May 4, 2000. This method eliminate confusion between European day-first and American month-first date formats, but it does look geeky. Consider switching to this standard for your international correspondence.

Here are month by month suggestions:

January, 1999

• Use this month as a dress rehearsal for January 2000. Constantly think about what you would do if computers failed and keep careful notes. Ask your staff to do the same. Save paper records of what happened during this January so you can use them as a baseline for computer-less decisions next January.

March - May 1999

• Be particularly careful to avoid pregnancy during these months. You do not want to give birth, especially not prematurely, in January 2000.

June, July, August 1999

• Invest in improvements that make you home more survivable in the winter. These might include adding a wood stove, more insulation, weather stripping, even solar hot water and electricity. These are good investments even if nothing bad happens in January 2000.
• Remember that most home heating systems, including oil-fueled systems, will not work if you lose electrical power.
• If the life of someone in your household is dependent on electricity, consider buying an emergency generator. But do not connect a generator to your house wiring. Check with your fire department about requirements for storing fuel safely.
• If you were planning to buy a new computer, now is the time to do it.

September 1999

• If you have a fireplace or wood stove, order a substantial supply of wood. Store at least a few weeks' supply of wood in a place where it cannot be easily stolen.
• Buy a couple of bags of charcoal at the end-of-season sales.
• Winterize your home. Have your heating system checked and your chimney cleaned.
• Start rinsing out used milk or beverage containers and filling them with water. Accumulate 7-14 gallons (28 - 52 litres) per person, more if it is warm in January where you live. Put the containers someplace where they won't freeze in the winter.
• Continue backing up your computer every month. Do not re-use the older backup tapes, but keep them in a safe place.
• Save all supermarket receipts during this month to get an idea of what your household uses.
• Order a new supply of checks. (Make sure your bank no longer prints "19___" on the checks.) Get at least twice the number you usually request. If the credit card system crashes, you may be writing a lot more checks than you normally do.
• Some older computer systems may have problems on September 9 (9/9/99). Be alert.

October 1999

• Review the supermarket receipts you saved last month. Make a list of staples that could keep your household going in a crisis and start laying in a two weeks' to one month's supply. Don't wait until the last weeks of 1999. Be sure to include batteries for portable radios and flashlights, candles, matches, powdered milk, canned food, diapers, formula and birth control. Try to buy stuff that you will use anyway if nothing much happens on January 1.
• Make sure you have enough warm clothes and blankets for the winter.
• If you need periodic medical checkups, make an appointment for December. Do not schedule elective surgery for January.
• Winterize your car. Replace battery, tires, wipers, etc. if they are marginal.
• If your finances are tight, go easy on the holiday shopping.
• If you can, plan a winter vacation someplace warm that goes through at least January 3. Make sure you can stay extra days if your travel arrangements fall through. Check with your employer first, however. Some may need all hands on deck for New Year's weekend.

November 1999

• Start accumulating a two month supply of cash.
• If you depend on medicines or special foods, buy a two month supply.
• Continue buying staples.
• Buy extra stationary supplies and stamps.
• Buy a good first aid and home medicine book. Check your first aid supplies.
• Get a backup e-mail address at a free e-mail service.
• Find a safe, unheated place that you can use for cold storage of food in case of a longlasting power failure.

December 1999

• Pay critical bills (health insurance, mortgage, rent) one month ahead. Get receipts, if possible.
• Get a copy of your credit report and put it in a safe place.
• Print out key computer files: addresses, phone numbers, fax numbers, account numbers and critical correspondence and legal papers. Print out your appointments for January and February.
• If you run a business, print out estimated invoices for January for your largest customers.
• Print out an inventory report that includes detailed warehouse shelf location information. If possible, transfer this database to a personal computer.
• Put jewelry and other valuables in a safe deposit box. Alarm systems may fail on Jan 1. But don't put anything away that you might need in January.
• Balance your checkbook.
• Set up a cardboard box or filing system in which you will save all paper receipts you get during 2000.
• Get your heating fuel tank topped off.
• Change your car's oil.
• Check your smoke alarms.
• If you are pregnant and will be close to term on January 1 (within two weeks), talk to your obstetrician about inducing labor in the last week of December. Remember to allow for a few days stay in the hospital in case there are medical problems.
• If you or an organization you belong to has property that is particularly valuable, hire someone to guard your property over New Year's weekend.

Last days of December 1999 (or before you go on vacation)

• Do a full back-up your computer's hard disk using a fresh cartridge or tape. Plan to keep this backup forever. Make a second copy of your most valuable files. Store an older backup in a different location.
• Avoid electronic transactions during the last week of December. Keep paper records of any transactions you do make, particularly bank deposits.
• Buy extra perishables.
• Do laundry.
• Fill your car's gas tank.
• Test your battery powered radio and make sure your extra batteries are ok.

Friday, December 31, 1999

• Avoid traveling anywhere today or tomorrow. Especially do not fly. We do not expect dozens of planes to crash, but there may be long delays.
• Listen to the news throughout the day. The first reports of Y2K problems will probably come from New Zeeland, where the local New Years occurs at 1100 am GMT, or 6 am EST Friday. Eastern Australia gets Y2K two hours later, Japan four hours later.
• Turn off all computers that do not need to be on. If possible, do this before midnight GMT (7 pm EST, 6 pm CST, 5 pm MST, 4 pm PST).
• Make sure you have a designated driver and stay off the roads altogether if possible. Accidents are never fun, but you really don't want to be in the ER tonight.
• Also, be especially careful with fireplaces, candles and Christmas trees. You don't want a fire tonight, either.
• Fill a bathtub with clean water.
• Party big time.

Saturday, January 1, 2000

• If possible, leave your computer off for the weekend.
• Try to keep your usage of electricity and gas as low as possible for the next few days. Turn off lights, set the thermostat a little lower.
• Listen to the news on the radio. We expect you will hear stories telling how the worst Year 2000 fears have proven groundless (tho some problems may take months to show up). But if all hell breaks loose, start rationing your supplies.
• Otherwise, party some more.

Sunday, January 2, 2000

• Keep on partying!

Monday, January 3, 2000

• Turn on your computer and check the date. Correct it manually, if necessary.
• Keep the kids home from school, if possible.
• Expect the unexpected.
• Check your computers at midnight to see if the date changes properly. Alternately, turn them off when you leave work and check them in the morning.
• Some computers may need to have their dates set each day from now on, until they can be repaired or replaced.

January 2000

• Avoid all electronic transactions for the first week or longer, depending on how things develop. This includes credit card purchases, ATM withdrawals, bank deposits, etc. Keep paper records of any transactions you do make.
• Spot check all output from your computers, particularly the first run of checks and invoices for January.
• Double check all prescriptions that are filled after January 1. This is particularly true for medicines dispensed in a hospital. Know the shapes and colors of the medicines you take and demand to speak to a pharmacist if they change in January.

Monday, February 28, 2000

• The year 2000 is a leap year. Tomorrow, Tuesday, is February 29. Some computers may not recognize this fact and their date may show up as Tuesday, March 1. On such computers you can reset the date to March 1 on Wednesday and go about your business. The day of the week may not show up properly for the rest of the year, however.

Throughout 2000

• News reports will give you a pretty good idea of how things are going and you can adjust your plans accordingly. But keep in mind that some serious problems may not surface until the end of the month, the end of the quarter or even the end of the year. IRS problems may take years to show up.
• Get a receipt of mailing from the post office when sending in tax payments and filings.
• Keep a paper record of all important transactions. Save all credit card slips. Photocopy or log all checks before you deposit them, at least until you receive and verify your February and March bank statements.
• Carefully check each pay stub, credit card bill and bank statement you receive. Report any problems you find promptly in writing and save a copy. Be patient, some institutions may be flooded with problems.
• Do not re-use computer back up tapes for the remainder of the year 2000. Do full backups; do not rely on incremental backups.
• Put your final computer back-up tape from 1999 in a safe place and never reuse it.
• Get a second opinion before acting on any unusual medical test results.
• If you are an investor, remember that corporate profits will be unusually high in the last quarter of 1999 as people stock up, and unusually low in the first quarter of 2000 because of Y2K problems and reduced demand. Some companies will shift non-Y2K losses to the first quarter of 2000, figuring the markets will discount bad news for that quarter.
• Even if, as we expect, the Year 2000 problem turns out to have been overblown, keep on making regular backups, file those recovery plans and save the emergency supplies. Our society is increasingly dependent on computers and technology. We had plenty of time to prepare for Y2K. The next crisis may strike witout warning.

2001

• Pack up all your Y2K records and save them for at least 3 years.
• Time to start working on the Unix 2038 date problem.

Summary

Our Year 2000 advice can be summarized in a simple slogan:

Back-up, Stock-up, Cash-up, and Check-up

Warning: The Year 2000 problem is very complex and no one knows all its ramifications. This checklist is not and cannot be complete. Get additional advice. You must follow your own best judgement as to what to do or not do.

Copyright © 1998 Arnold G. Reinhold, Cambridge, MA "All Rights Reserved"

1998-8-2, rev 1999-1-16, 23, 11-26