I'm working on an article on "foresight" right now. My thesis is
that foresight is not so much project as understanding of the
integration of the existent. How I predict what will happen is by
seeing what is and seeing its history. The "frozen accidents" of the
past will carry into the future and the changes that I'm interested
in, the ones that are happening right now, will have to fit that
world which has evolved from "frozen accidents" or they will not
survive.
What is very interesting to me is how the various models and
metaphors fit together. The living will fit into the machine -
although it may find itself severely inhibited. The machine will
easily fit into the living. We think that way already. There is
always mechanism and physicality when there is anything living.
What is more interesting to me is the possible variations of nesting
and of recombination. Rather than a hierarchy of metaphors or
models, we can have various rules or methods of combination and
sequencing of them depending on the circumstances and intentions.
I have been most informed by Claude Shannon and his information and
communication theories in how to balance the fundamental metaphors in
organisational life.
-- Michael McMaster Michael@kbddean.demon.co.uk