Re the speed-technology-progress debate:
This is not a new issue, nor is it particularly about computers. When the
industrial revolution began, almost everyone worked on the farm, because
the state of food-producing technology required it. Now the farms are
sparsely populated and all us rich folks have a car and a VCR -- and
computers for writing messages about the unfortunate effects of
technology.
We humans will continue to introduce labor-displacing technology, whether
it be stirrups or steam engines or medical lasers. We do it because
technology is a defining attribute of the human being. Stupid or ignorant
people (or people with defective mental models?) will find cruel and
stupid ways to introduce technology. Smart managers (and effective
learning organisations?) will try to introduce technology with a better
view of its complete effect on the organisation.
In most cases with which I have worked, the organisations are working
within a larger system that will punish them with bankruptcy if they do
not remain competitive. The grocer does not introduce gadgetry in order
to provide more leisure time for the workers, but in order to be allowed
to stay in business at all. The smartest ones figure out a way to grow
the business, if they can afford it, but cutting headcount is a more
common idea.
In my own work I have tried to show management smarter ways to use
technology, to enrich working life, to get a competitive advantage, to
improve quality over the longer term. But the better I am at this, the
more likely it is that my work is costing jobs at my client's competitor.
In the larger system, most of the jobs that people are losing didn't
exist 50 years ago and won't exist 20 years hence. There is no heavenly
mandate that there be milkmaids or COBOL programmers or auto workers in
certain numbers, or in certain places, or over a certain span of time.
The cycles of mass displacement driven by technological change have been
going on for a long time, often with truly dire results (war, famine,
etc.) This is one of the big problems of our time. The leverage point is
mostly external to the grocery store, perhaps closer to the schoolhouse.
-- Dan Warfield +44 171 437 4337 -office dwarfield@cix.compulink.co.uk 11 Golden Square +44 171 494 1168 - fax danny@well.sf.ca.us London W1R 3AF +44 860 887448 -mobile 72707.72@compuserve.com England